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Prediction market analysis.

Market context, guides and case studies to help you understand prediction markets.

From the experts.

G.R.C.

PhD, 35+ years in catastrophe risk

Earthquakes

What causes an earthquake, how magnitude is measured, the largest US quakes and where damaging shaking is most likely.

G.R.C.Sep 28, 2026Pro

Hurricanes

What a hurricane needs to form, where tropical cyclones form, how storms are classified and what drives their strength.

G.R.C.Sep 28, 2026Pro

Severe storms

How tornadoes and hail are measured, how severe thunderstorms form and organize, and where activity peaks by season.

G.R.C.Sep 28, 2026Pro

Explore all guides.

A long row of stainless steel laundromat dryers with round glass doors, fading out of focus.FundamentalsUnderstanding wash trading in prediction marketsWhat wash trading is, what the rules say, how much volume the studies attribute to it, and what fake volume means for anyone reading a prediction market.
A gold Bitcoin symbol on a dark rounded cube beside a small gold coin and a rising arrow.FundamentalsThe speculative mechanics of short-term crypto prediction marketsCoin-flip pricing, taker fees that peak at 50 cents, automated market makers on the other side, and volume figures that count payouts rather than cash.Cracked, dried-out earth seen from above.Climate & WeatherDrought basics: the types, the D0 to D4 scale, and the worst US droughtsThe types of drought, the D0 to D4 severity scale, and the worst droughts in US history.A tornado funnel descending from a dark storm cloud over green farmland.Climate & WeatherSevere storm basics: tornadoes, hail, damaging winds, and when they strikeTornado ratings, how severe thunderstorms form, the seasonal pattern, and the records.Black and white photograph of buildings burning on Market Street after the 1906 San Francisco earthquake.Climate & WeatherEarthquake basics: faults, magnitude, and where US risk is highestFaults, magnitude, the largest US earthquakes, and California's 30-year odds.A white pickup truck driving through deep floodwater, throwing up a wake of spray.Climate & WeatherHurricane basics: how they form, how they're rated, and what drives themHow hurricanes form, how they are rated, when the seasons run, and what drives their strength.A white question mark painted on a dark paved sidewalk, split by two grout lines.FundamentalsWho is on the other side of a prediction market tradeMarket makers, the exchange's own affiliate, bots, insiders, hedgers and wash traders: who fills an order on Kalshi and Polymarket, and what each one wants.A hand holding a small round wooden token printed with an open eye and the word YES.StrategyWhy most mention market buyers lose moneyYes contracts priced too high, settlement by rulebook rather than by ear, cancelled events that wipe the board, and insiders who trade the script.A white office copier on a grey cabinet against a ribbed grey wall.StrategyCopy trading on prediction markets: what the leaderboard does not showWhy a copied trade is a different trade: slippage, bot speed, fees, hidden hedges, fake volume, and what a leaderboard rank leaves out.A glowing section sign beside a wireframe set of scales on a dark grid.Legal & RegulationWho should and should not trade prediction marketsThe information and influence test, the four layers of restrictions, and who is eligible to trade.A red label embossed with the word MISTAKE on a blank notebook page.FundamentalsCommon pitfalls and warnings for prediction marketsTen mistakes that lose money before an event resolves, from contract wording to borrowed money.Small business owner reviewing costs at the counter of a neighborhood shopStrategyHow small businesses can use prediction markets to hedge riskA bar, an ice cream shop, and a conference organizer all hedged real business risk with prediction market contracts. How the hedges worked, what the arithmetic looks like, and where the limits sit.

Prediction market glossary.

View the full glossary
Implied ProbabilityPricing & Probability
The market's estimated likelihood, derived from the contract price.
SettlementSettlement & Resolution
When a contract resolves and payouts are distributed.
SpreadPricing & Probability
The difference between the best buy and sell price.
LiquidityPlatforms & Regulation
How easily you can trade at the price you want.
Order BookTrading Mechanics
The list of pending buy and sell orders at various prices.
Event ContractPlatforms & Regulation
A prediction market contract tied to a real-world outcome.
Binary ContractPricing & Probability
A contract that resolves to $1 (Yes) or $0 (No).
Resolution SourceSettlement & Resolution
The data source that determines a contract's outcome.

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