The harsh reality is that most people who trade prediction markets to make money don’t, and the data on who does is now public. Researchers and reporters have analyzed millions of historical trades across both decentralized platforms and regulated exchanges to track who profits. The numbers show that profits, overwhelmingly, do not spread across the retail audience that trades these contracts.
Instead, capital concentrates in a tiny fraction of accounts, while the broader public absorbs the losses. A study of Polymarket’s public trading records, reported by Yale in June 2026, concluded that “the remaining majority does not produce accuracy; rather, it funds it.”1Yale Insights (Anna Louie Sussman), “Wisdom of the Few: Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders,” insights.som.yale.edu, June 2026
What percent of prediction market traders make money?
Between 16% and 32% of accounts turn a profit, depending on the study.2Yale Insights (Anna Louie Sussman), “Wisdom of the Few: Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders,” insights.som.yale.edu, June 20263Casino.org (Todd Shriber), “New Study Suggests 84% of Polymarket Traders Aren’t Profitable,” casino.org, April 20264Yahoo Finance (BeInCrypto, Kamina Bashir), “Prediction Markets Hit New Milestones, but Most Traders Are Losing, WSJ Finds,” finance.yahoo.com, May 2026 An April 2026 analysis by researcher Andrey Sergeenkov of roughly 2.5 million Polymarket wallets found that 84.1% were not profitable.5Casino.org (Todd Shriber), “New Study Suggests 84% of Polymarket Traders Aren’t Profitable,” casino.org, April 2026 Only about 2% of wallets had ever made more than $1,000, and 840 addresses, or 0.033%, had made more than $100,000.6Casino.org (Todd Shriber), “New Study Suggests 84% of Polymarket Traders Aren’t Profitable,” casino.org, April 2026
A Wall Street Journal analysis of 1.6 million Polymarket accounts active since November 2022 showed a similar skew.7Yahoo Finance (BeInCrypto, Kamina Bashir), “Prediction Markets Hit New Milestones, but Most Traders Are Losing, WSJ Finds,” finance.yahoo.com, May 2026 More than 70% of accounts had lost money, and 0.1% collected 67% of all profits.8Yahoo Finance (BeInCrypto, Kamina Bashir), “Prediction Markets Hit New Milestones, but Most Traders Are Losing, WSJ Finds,” finance.yahoo.com, May 2026 The typical account in that dataset was down between $1 and $100, while the bottom 10% lost an average of $4,000 each.9Yahoo Finance (BeInCrypto, Kamina Bashir), “Prediction Markets Hit New Milestones, but Most Traders Are Losing, WSJ Finds,” finance.yahoo.com, May 2026
These figures reflect wallet addresses and trading accounts rather than individuals, and one person can hold more than one account.
Who are the prediction market traders that profit?
Simply put, the prediction market traders that actually make money can be boiled down to a small group of fast, skilled participants and market makers, alongside a larger cohort of accounts that simply got lucky.10Yale Insights (Anna Louie Sussman), “Wisdom of the Few: Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders,” insights.som.yale.edu, June 2026
While both Kalshi and Polymarket operate central order books, Polymarket's public transaction log allows researchers to track account-level performance directly.11Yale Insights (Anna Louie Sussman), “Wisdom of the Few: Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders,” insights.som.yale.edu, June 2026 A study by Theis Ingerslev Jensen of the Yale School of Management, with Roberto Gómez-Cram, Yunhan Guo, and Howard Kung of London Business School, analyzed 1.72 million accounts across two years of trading:12Yale Insights (Anna Louie Sussman), “Wisdom of the Few: Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders,” insights.som.yale.edu, June 2026
- Only 3% of accounts showed skill that chance could not explain.13Yale Insights (Anna Louie Sussman), “Wisdom of the Few: Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders,” insights.som.yale.edu, June 2026
- Skilled traders and market makers, fewer than 3.5% of accounts together, captured over 30% of total gains.14Yale Insights (Anna Louie Sussman), “Wisdom of the Few: Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders,” insights.som.yale.edu, June 2026
- About 29% of accounts made money without any measurable skill and took the remaining 69% of gains.15Yale Insights (Anna Louie Sussman), “Wisdom of the Few: Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders,” insights.som.yale.edu, June 2026
- The skilled traders reacted faster to news such as Federal Reserve announcements and company earnings, and their trades moved prices toward the final result.16Yale Insights (Anna Louie Sussman), “Wisdom of the Few: Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders,” insights.som.yale.edu, June 2026
- Skill tended to last: 44% of accounts rated skilled in one half of their markets were rated skilled in the other half too.17Yale Insights (Anna Louie Sussman), “Wisdom of the Few: Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders,” insights.som.yale.edu, June 2026
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Why do most people lose money trading prediction markets?
Two patterns account for much of the loss: traders overpay for long shots, and they pay extra to trade immediately instead of setting their own price.18Bürgi, Deng and Whelan, “Makers and Takers: The Economics of the Kalshi Prediction Market,” George Washington University Center for Economic Research Working Paper 2026-001, ideas.repec.org, 2026
Retail participants often gravitate toward cheap Yes contracts, treating them like high-upside lottery tickets. A study of more than 300,000 Kalshi contracts by Constantin Bürgi, Wanying Deng, and Karl Whelan demonstrated why this fails: “low-price contracts win far less often than required to break even after fees,” while high-price contracts “win more often and yield small positive returns.”19Bürgi, Deng and Whelan, “Makers and Takers: The Economics of the Kalshi Prediction Market,” George Washington University Center for Economic Research Working Paper 2026-001, ideas.repec.org, 2026
How a trader enters a trade creates a second structural hurdle. The same study found that makers, who post the prices and wait for someone to match them, “earn higher returns than Takers,” who simply accept the prices available on the screen.20Bürgi, Deng and Whelan, “Makers and Takers: The Economics of the Kalshi Prediction Market,” George Washington University Center for Economic Research Working Paper 2026-001, ideas.repec.org, 2026 On top of this cost, traders often misjudge fair probability. A Wall Street Journal analysis of more than 35,000 completed Kalshi mention markets found that Yes contracts priced at a 50% chance paid out only about 40% of the time.21Yahoo Finance (BeInCrypto, Kamina Bashir), “Prediction Markets Hit New Milestones, but Most Traders Are Losing, WSJ Finds,” finance.yahoo.com, May 2026
What gives a trader a fighting chance?
Nothing removes the risk, but the evidence shows that the traders who profit consistently are better informed and faster to react.22Yale Insights (Anna Louie Sussman), “Wisdom of the Few: Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders,” insights.som.yale.edu, June 2026
A trader can focus on specific habits and preparation to improve their baseline:
- Compare prices before trading: Kalshi and Polymarket list many of the same events, sometimes under different contract rules. The Chironus scanner shows both side by side.
- Follow the news that moves a market: The skilled traders in the Yale study reacted faster to news.23Yale Insights (Anna Louie Sussman), “Wisdom of the Few: Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders,” insights.som.yale.edu, June 2026 Chironus sends alerts when a market in an event they follow moves.
- Practice before risking money: Paper trading on Chironus fills at live prices with simulated money, so a trader can test reasoning first.
- Get insight from people who know the field: Chironus experts are credentialed specialists who publish picks and pieces which are valuable to prediction market participants.