Donald Trump's second four-year term began on January 20, 2025, and Section 1 of the Twentieth Amendment establishes that the term concludes at noon on January 20, 2029. Under the U.S. Constitution, three specific procedures can end a presidential term prior to that date: resignation, the disability mechanism established in Section 4 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, and impeachment by the House of Representatives followed by conviction in the Senate.
Trump's second term has been defined by rapid executive actions, major legislative shifts like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and sweeping changes to federal agencies. His administration has prioritized aggressive immigration enforcement, major tariff policy overhauls, and significant foreign policy actions, including military operations involving Iran and new diplomatic frameworks in the Middle East.
How is presidential approval measured, and what moves it?
Presidential approval is measured by polling a representative random sample of adults on a single question: whether they approve or disapprove of the way the president is handling his job. Polling organizations report an approval percentage, a disapproval percentage, and an undecided share for a specific field period. Statistical aggregators compile results from multiple polling firms to calculate a daily running average.
Aggregated polling tracking provides a continuous benchmark of public sentiment across the four-year term, capturing shifts in public support over time.
How can a president leave office early, and who takes over?
A president can leave office early through four constitutional pathways: death, resignation, removal following impeachment and conviction, or the disability provisions of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment. Section 1 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment dictates that upon the president's removal, death, or resignation, the vice president becomes president.
Section 4 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment addresses executive disability. If the vice president and a majority of the principal officers of the executive departments declare in writing to Congress that the president is unable to discharge the duties of the office, the vice president assumes the powers as acting president. If the president transmits a written declaration to the contrary, Congress must resolve the issue; keeping the president stripped of power requires a two-thirds vote in both the House and the Senate.
If both the presidency and vice presidency become vacant simultaneously, the Presidential Succession Act (3 U.S.C. 19) establishes the line of succession. Order passes first to the Speaker of the House, then to the President pro tempore of the Senate, and subsequently to Cabinet secretaries in the order of their department's creation, beginning with the Secretary of State.
How does impeachment work, and what would removal require?
Impeachment is a formal constitutional charge, not an automatic removal from office. Article I of the Constitution grants the House of Representatives the sole power of impeachment, which requires a simple majority vote on one or more articles of impeachment. The Senate holds the sole power to try all impeachments, where conviction and removal require a two-thirds concurrence of members present.
No U.S. president has been convicted by the Senate. According to the House Historian's list of individuals impeached, the House has impeached three presidents across four separate occasions: Andrew Johnson in 1868, Bill Clinton in 1998, and Donald Trump in 2019 and 2021. In all four instances, the Senate voted to acquit.
Upon conviction, the Senate may also vote by a simple majority to disqualify the individual from holding future federal office.
Impeachment votes, approval readings and senior departures, by date.
Feb 1868: The House impeached Andrew Johnson; the Senate subsequently acquitted him following a trial ending in May.
Dec 1998: The House adopted two articles of impeachment against Bill Clinton.
Feb 1999: The Senate acquitted Clinton on both articles of impeachment.
Dec 2019: The House impeached Donald Trump on articles of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.
Feb 2020: The Senate voted to acquit Trump on both articles.
Jan 2021: The House impeached Trump a second time on a single article of incitement of insurrection.
Feb 2021: The Senate acquitted Trump in his second impeachment trial.
Jan 2025: Donald Trump took the oath of office for his second term on January 20.
Jul 2025: Gallup recorded a mid-year approval rating reading of 37 percent.
Nov 2025: Gallup recorded an approval reading of 36 percent against 60 percent disapproval.
Mar 2026: The Senate confirmed Markwayne Mullin as Secretary of Homeland Security by a 54 to 45 vote following the departure of Kristi Noem.
Apr 2026: Todd Blanche began serving as acting Attorney General.
Aug 2026: The Senate confirmed Todd Blanche by a 50 to 49 vote on August 8, and he was officially sworn in as the 88th Attorney General on August 10.
Aug 2026: Karoline Leavitt concluded her service as White House press secretary on August 27.
Jan 2029: The second presidential term concludes at noon on January 20 under the Twentieth Amendment.
Trump presidency markets.
events · markets
POLY
Impeachment and exit
Is Trump out as president before ?
Trump out as President before ?
KLSH
Impeachment and exit markets
Does Trump announce his departure as president?
Before -
KLSH
Impeachment and exit markets
Will Trump be impeached?
Before Jan, +
POLY
Impeachment and exit
Is Trump impeached by the end of ?
Will Trump be impeached by end of ?
KLSH
Impeachment and exit
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
Before his term ends
KLSH
Impeachment and exit
Will Trump be impeached during his term?
Before Jan, +
POLY
Impeachment and exit
Does Trump resign by the end of ?
Will Trump resign by December, ?
KLSH
Impeachment and exit
Will Trump resign during his term?
Before his term ends-
KLSH
Impeachment and exit
Will Trump be allowed to run for a third term?
Before Jan, -
KLSH
Impeachment and exit
Will Section the 25th Amendment be used?
Before -
POLY
Impeachment and exit
Is JD Vance out as vice president?
December -
KLSH
Impeachment and exit markets
Will Trump run for a third term?
Before Election Day
POLY
Impeachment and exit
Is Trump impeached before his term ends?
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
KLSH
Impeachment and exit markets
Will a Cabinet member be impeached?
Before +
KLSH
Impeachment and exit markets
Will a Republican in Congress call for Trump's impeachment?
Before
POLY
Impeachment and exit
Is Trump removed under the Twenty-Fifth Amendment before ?
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before ?
POLY
Impeachment and exit
Does Trump resign before ?
Will Trump resign before ?
POLY
Impeachment and exit
Is Kristi Noem impeached in ?
Kristi Noem impeached in ?-
POLY
Impeachment and exit
Does Trump repeal presidential term limits in ?
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in ?+
KLSH
Impeachment and exit
Will a Republican in Congress call for the Twenty-Fifth Amendment?
Before Jan, -
POLY
Cabinet and personnel
Is Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December ?
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December ?-
POLY
Cabinet and personnel
Is Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December ?
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December ?
POLY
Cabinet and personnel
Does Elon Musk rejoin the administration in ?
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in ?+
KLSH
Cabinet and personnel markets
Who will be the next Secretary of the Army?
Sean Parnell
KLSH
Cabinet and personnel
When will Trump's Labor Secretary pick be confirmed?
Before Jan,
KLSH
Cabinet and personnel
Who will be the next White House director of legislative affairs?
No new Director of Legislative Affairs
POLY
Cabinet and personnel
Is Susie Wiles out as White House chief of staff by December ?
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December ?-
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Before +
POLY
Executive actions and pardons
Does Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by the end of ?
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of ?-
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons markets
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
Before
POLY
Executive actions and pardons
Does Trump declare an election-interference emergency?
Trump declares election interference national emergency?
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump create a national Bitcoin reserve in ?
Before Jan, -
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump declare an election emergency?
Before Nov, -
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump abolish the Department of Education?
Before Jan,
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump expand the H-1B program?
Before +
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody?
Before +
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends?
Before Jan, +
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump restrict SNAP benefits?
Before Jan, -
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump make IVF free?
Before
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump pardon a member of his family?
Yes+
POLY
Executive actions and pardons
Does Trump nationalize elections?
Will Trump nationalize elections?
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons markets
Who will join the sovereign wealth fund before ?
Chamath Palihapitiya
POLY
Executive actions and pardons
Does Trump end the Department of Education before ?
Will Trump end Department of Education before ?
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump establish nationwide concealed carry?
Before Jan,
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump invoke the DC Home Rule Act?
Before Jan, -
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump pull Customs and Border Protection from a sanctuary city airport?
Before Jan, -
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump issue dividend payments in ?
Yes+
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump approve a new city on federal land?
Before
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act?
Before Jan,
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump issue Affordable Care Act rebates before Election Day?
Yes-
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump order federal pre-release review of AI models?
Before Jan, -
KLSH
Executive actions and pardons
Will Trump suspend habeas corpus?
Before Trump's term ends
POLY
Executive actions and pardons
Does Trump issue a veto in ?
Will Trump issue a veto in ?
POLY
Executive actions and pardons
Does Trump create a dividend by March, ?
Will Trump create a dividend by March, ?-
POLY
Executive actions and pardons
Does Trump suspend US entry for more countries?
December,
POLY
The expansion agenda
Does Trump acquire Greenland before ?
Will Trump acquire Greenland before ?+
POLY
The expansion agenda
Does the US acquire part of Greenland in ?
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in ?+
KLSH
The expansion agenda markets
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
Before January, -
KLSH
The expansion agenda markets
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
Before January,
POLY
The expansion agenda
Does the US invade Greenland in ?
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in ?+
KLSH
The expansion agenda
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
During Trump's term+
POLY
The expansion agenda
Does Venezuela become the 51st state?
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
POLY
The expansion agenda
Does the US take the Panama Canal before ?
US takes Panama Canal before ?-
POLY
The expansion agenda
Does the US annex any territory in ?
Will US annex any territory in ?+
KLSH
The expansion agenda
Will the US take control of any part of Canada?
Before -
POLY
The expansion agenda
Is a Greenland deal signed by December ?
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December ?-
KLSH
The expansion agenda
Will Trump add a 51st state to the US?
Before
POLY
The expansion agenda
Is there a US and Denmark military clash before ?
US x Denmark Military clash before ?-
POLY
The expansion agenda
Does Trump rename an ocean in ?
Will Trump rename an ocean in ?
POLY
The expansion agenda
Does Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
KLSH
Beyond policy
Will Trump create a ill featuring himself?
Before Jan, +
KLSH
Beyond policy
Will the pro football champions visit the White House?
Yes-
KLSH
Beyond policy
: Trump's dream year?
Yes+
KLSH
Beyond policy
Will Trump visit Iran?
Before Jan, +
KLSH
Beyond policy
: Trump's bad year?
Yes
POLY
Beyond policy
Does Trump visit North Korea?
December -
POLY
Beyond policy
Are Trump, Putin and Zelenskyy seen together before ?
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before ?
POLY
Beyond policy
Does Trump rename the Strait of Hormuz?
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December ?+
POLY
Beyond policy
Do the Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in ?
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in ?+
POLY
Beyond policy
Does Trump flip the bird again in ?
Will Trump flip the bird again in ?
POLY
Beyond policy
Do Trump, Putin and Zelenskyy meet together before ?
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before ?
POLY
Beyond policy
Is Trump on a ill this year?
Trump on ill this year?-
KLSH
Beyond policy
Will Trump appear on Saturday Night Live during the term?
Before -
KLSH
Beyond policy
Will Trump be added to Mount Rushmore?
Before
POLY
Beyond policy
Does Trump visit Greenland?
December
KLSH
Beyond policy
Will Trump call for John Thune to step down?
Before Jan, -
POLY
Beyond policy
Does Trump wear a yarmulke in ?
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in ?
KLSH
Beyond policy
Will Kim Jong Un visit the United States during the term?
During Trump's term-
KLSH
Beyond policy
Will the New York pro basketball team visit the White House?
New York Pro Basketball team to visit the White House
KLSH
Beyond policy
Will construction begin on the triumphal arch in ?
Before Jan,
KLSH
Beyond policy markets
Will Trump visit Greenland?
Before Jan,
POLY
Beyond policy
Does Trump call Nicki Minaj hot again in ?
Trump calls Nicki Minaj hot again in ?-
POLY
Beyond policy
Does Trump visit Gaza in ?
Will Trump visit Gaza in ?+
Frequently asked questions.
Acquiring territory requires a formal international treaty. Article II of the Constitution specifies that the president can conclude treaties provided two-thirds of the Senate concurs, along with formal agreement from the selling nation (in Greenland's case, the Kingdom of Denmark). Historical U.S. territorial purchases include Alaska in 1867 for $7.2 million and the Danish West Indies (U.S. Virgin Islands) in 1917 for $25 million.
Cabinet secretaries are nominated by the president and require majority confirmation by the Senate. Between a secretary's departure and a successor's confirmation, executive departments are managed by acting officers under federal vacancy laws.
Article II grants the president the power to issue reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States, except in cases of impeachment. This power applies exclusively to federal crimes and does not extend to state-level prosecutions or civil matters.
Under Article IV of the Constitution, Congress holds the sole authority to admit new states to the Union. New states cannot be formed within the jurisdiction of an existing state without the consent of the involved state legislatures and Congress. Admission typically requires an enabling act of Congress, a state constitution drafted by the territory, and a final congressional resolution.
No. The Twenty-Second Amendment explicitly states that no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice. Additionally, anyone who has held or acted as president for more than two years of another person's term may only be elected once.
An executive order is a directive issued by the president to manage operations within the federal executive branch, published in the Federal Register. Executive orders hold the force of law for federal agencies but cannot override existing federal statutes or violate constitutional constraints.
Track the ladder for the next Supreme Court justice, the retirement-watch contracts on Samuel Alito, and the pending cert petitions on sports event contracts, tariffs, and gun rights, priced live on Polymarket and Kalshi.