G.R.C.
A structural engineer who has spent more than 35 years measuring natural hazard risk for insurers, reinsurers and governments.
PhD, Johns Hopkins University
Registered professional engineer
35+ years in catastrophe risk
15 years as a consultant
Guest lecturer, US and Hong Kong
Adviser on disaster risk finance
G.R.C. is a structural engineer with a PhD in civil and structural engineering (Johns Hopkins) and more than 35 years of experience measuring natural hazard risk for insurers, reinsurers and governments. He builds and tests the models re/insurers use to estimate losses from tropical cyclones, floods and earthquakes. His work covers tropical cyclone and earthquake models for the Asia Pacific region, flood models for a US primary insurer, and hazard models for Europe and the US that account for climate change. He has spent 15 years as a consultant to catastrophe modeling firms, and has advised a multilateral development bank and a sovereign catastrophe risk pool on disaster risk finance. He is a registered professional engineer and lectures on ESG, extreme event statistics and catastrophe modeling at universities and organizations in the US and Hong Kong.
Covers: Earthquakes and volcanoes, Hurricanes, Tornadoes and severe weather
Last updated
Posts.
Earthquakes
What causes an earthquake, how magnitude is measured, the largest US quakes and where damaging shaking is most likely.
Hurricanes
What a hurricane needs to form, where tropical cyclones form, how storms are classified and what drives their strength.
Droughts
Drought types, how severity is graded from D0 to D4, the worst US droughts and how climate change raises the odds.
Severe storms
How tornadoes and hail are measured, how severe thunderstorms form and organize, and where activity peaks by season.
What does earthquake magnitude mean?
Magnitude is logarithmic: a magnitude 5 shakes the ground 10 times more than a 4 and releases about 32 times the energy.
What are California's earthquake odds?
USGS puts California's 30-year odds of a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake above 99%, with odds for two main regions.
What is the Gutenberg-Richter relationship?
Earthquake counts against magnitude follow a logarithmic distribution that holds worldwide and for individual regions.
What causes an earthquake?
An earthquake occurs when two blocks of the earth slip along a fault, which is classified by its angle and slip.
Earlier posts
Which US states are most at risk of earthquakes?
Sixteen US states have a relatively high likelihood of damaging shaking, based on a history of magnitude 6.0+ quakes.
What makes a hurricane "major"?
The Saffir-Simpson scale ranks hurricanes by wind speed, and a storm of Category 3 or above counts as major.
When is hurricane season?
The North Atlantic season runs from June 1 to November 30, and the eastern Pacific season starts earlier, on May 15.
What is the difference between a tropical storm and a hurricane?
A tropical cyclone is a hurricane once sustained winds reach 74 mph, and a tropical storm at 39 to 73 mph.
How do hurricanes form?
Six ingredients have to line up, from ocean water of at least 80°F to low wind shear and a weather trigger.
What is rapid intensification?
Growing evidence links warmer oceans to more rapid intensification, as when Hurricane Polo gained 110 mph in 24 hours.
How does El Niño affect hurricane season?
El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricanes and boosts eastern Pacific activity, and La Niña does the reverse.
What is a drought?
Drought is a slow onset disaster caused by below normal rainfall over a prolonged period, lasting weeks or years.
What does "exceptional drought" (D4) mean?
The U.S. Drought Monitor grades drought from D0, abnormally dry, to D4, exceptional, the most intense level.
What is hydrological drought?
Hydrological drought is the effect of precipitation shortfalls on streamflow, reservoirs and groundwater.
What is agricultural drought?
Agricultural drought links precipitation shortages and soil water deficits to their impacts on crops and irrigation.
What were the worst droughts in US history?
The four worst US droughts run from the 1930s Dust Bowl to the 2011 to 2012 drought across 80% of US farmland.
When is tornado season?
Severe storm activity follows the jet stream, from the Gulf Coast in late winter to the northern Plains by June.
Where is Tornado Alley?
The classic Tornado Alley core is Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Arkansas, where April brings the most violent outbreaks.
How do severe thunderstorms form?
Moisture, instability, lift and wind shear decide whether a storm stays ordinary or turns severe.
What is the largest derecho on record?
The 1999 Boundary Waters derecho holds the path length record, and the April 2011 serial derecho the extent record.
How are tornadoes rated?
The Enhanced Fujita scale rates tornadoes from EF0 to EF5 by wind speed and damage, with how often each occurs.