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What are California's earthquake odds?

GRC
G.R.C.

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USGS puts California's 30-year odds of a magnitude 6.7 or larger quake above 99%, with odds for two main regions.

Answer

According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), California has a greater than 99% chance of experiencing a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake statewide over a 30-year period.1U.S. Geological Survey (Fact Sheet 2015-3009), "UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California's Complex Fault System," pubs.usgs.gov, March 2015. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf

Within the next 30 years the probability for the two main regions is:1U.S. Geological Survey (Fact Sheet 2015-3009), "UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California's Complex Fault System," pubs.usgs.gov, March 2015. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf2U.S. Geological Survey (Fact Sheet 2016-3020), "Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014-2043," pubs.usgs.gov, August 2016 (rev. 1.1). https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf

Los Angeles

  • 60% earthquake magnitude 6.71U.S. Geological Survey (Fact Sheet 2015-3009), "UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California's Complex Fault System," pubs.usgs.gov, March 2015. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf
  • 46% earthquake magnitude 71U.S. Geological Survey (Fact Sheet 2015-3009), "UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California's Complex Fault System," pubs.usgs.gov, March 2015. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf2U.S. Geological Survey (Fact Sheet 2016-3020), "Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014-2043," pubs.usgs.gov, August 2016 (rev. 1.1). https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf
  • 31% earthquake magnitude 7.51U.S. Geological Survey (Fact Sheet 2015-3009), "UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California's Complex Fault System," pubs.usgs.gov, March 2015. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf2U.S. Geological Survey (Fact Sheet 2016-3020), "Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014-2043," pubs.usgs.gov, August 2016 (rev. 1.1). https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf

San Francisco Bay Area

  • 72% earthquake magnitude 6.71U.S. Geological Survey (Fact Sheet 2015-3009), "UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California's Complex Fault System," pubs.usgs.gov, March 2015. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf2U.S. Geological Survey (Fact Sheet 2016-3020), "Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014-2043," pubs.usgs.gov, August 2016 (rev. 1.1). https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf
  • 51% an earthquake magnitude 71U.S. Geological Survey (Fact Sheet 2015-3009), "UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California's Complex Fault System," pubs.usgs.gov, March 2015. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf2U.S. Geological Survey (Fact Sheet 2016-3020), "Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014-2043," pubs.usgs.gov, August 2016 (rev. 1.1). https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf
  • 20% an earthquake magnitude 7.51U.S. Geological Survey (Fact Sheet 2015-3009), "UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California's Complex Fault System," pubs.usgs.gov, March 2015. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf2U.S. Geological Survey (Fact Sheet 2016-3020), "Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014-2043," pubs.usgs.gov, August 2016 (rev. 1.1). https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf

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