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2028 presidential election: the nomination race, the Electoral College, and who can run
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LIVEPolitics· September 11, 2026

2028 presidential election: the nomination race, the Electoral College, and who can run

2028 presidential election: the nomination race, the Electoral College, and who can run

The 2028 United States presidential election takes place on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. Under federal law, election day falls on the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November of every fourth year. Voters do not cast ballots directly for presidential candidates; instead, they select slate electors who compose the Electoral College. The 538 electors meet in December to cast the official votes that decide the presidency, with 270 votes required to win a majority.

The election process consists of two primary stages. During the first stage, state primaries and caucuses allocate delegates to national nominating conventions, where party delegates formally select their presidential and vice-presidential candidates. The general election follows in November. Party governing bodies, including the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Republican National Committee (RNC), govern delegate allocation rules, while the U.S. Constitution and federal statutes dictate the general election process.

How does a candidate win a party's presidential nomination?

A candidate secures a party's presidential nomination by winning a majority of delegate votes at the party's national convention. Delegates are awarded state by state through primary elections and caucuses held during the first half of the election year. Under The Rules of the Republican Party, state contests are prohibited before March 1 (excluding traditional early states Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada) and require proportional delegate allocation for contests held prior to March 15.

The Democratic Party operates under party charter rules requiring state delegations to reflect the proportional preferences expressed by primary voters, explicitly prohibiting winner-take-all unit rules.

Once a candidate secures a majority of delegate votes at the national convention, the party formally certifies the presidential and vice-presidential nominees for the general election ballot.

How does the Electoral College decide the winner?

The Electoral College determines the winner by assigning each state a number of electors equal to its total representation in Congress (House members plus two Senators), alongside three electors assigned to the District of Columbia, establishing a 538-member total. Electors convene in their respective state capitals on the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday in December to cast official electoral votes. Congress formally counts and certifies the electoral certificates during a joint session on January 6.

If no candidate achieves the required 270 electoral votes, the 12th Amendment transfers the election to the House of Representatives. In a contingent election, the House selects the President from the top three electoral vote recipients, with each state congressional delegation casting a single collective vote.

A candidate must secure a majority of states (26 out of 50) in the House to be elected President, while the Senate chooses the Vice President in a separate vote.

How often does the early front-runner win the nomination?

Early primary polling and front-runner status do not guarantee a party nomination. Historical official nomination outcomes are recorded by the Federal Election Commission in its official election results compilations, which document the certified candidates, primary vote tallies, and delegate outcomes across previous election cycles.

The structure of the primary calendar influences how nomination contests unfold. The DNC established an early primary window that opens in South Carolina on January 22, 2028, followed by Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia through February 29. Meanwhile, Republican party rules restrict most non-exempt states from holding contests until March of the election year.

Because primary calendars stretch across several months, early candidates must maintain organization, fundraising, and voter support across multiple states to secure a delegate majority.

Who is eligible to run for president, and can a former president run again?

Constitutional qualifications for the presidency are established by Article II of the Constitution, which restricts eligibility to natural born citizens who are at least 35 years old and have been residents within the United States for 14 years.

Term limits are governed by the 22nd Amendment, which states that no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice. The amendment also specifies that any individual who holds the office of President, or acts as President, for more than two years of a term to which another person was elected may only be elected President once.

A former president who has served only one full term remains constitutionally eligible to run for and be elected to a second term, provided they satisfy the baseline qualifications of Article II.

Who picks the vice-presidential nominee, and when?

The national party convention formally nominates the vice-presidential candidate in a vote held separately from the presidential nomination. Under Democratic Party rules, the convention delegates vote on both nominations, with party procedures allowing the presidential nominee to put forward their chosen running mate for formal convention confirmation.

Republican Party rules mandate a state-by-state roll call vote for the vice-presidential nomination, while permitting nomination by acclamation if a single candidate demonstrates required delegate support.

The 12th Amendment subjects the Vice President to the same constitutional eligibility requirements as the President, prohibiting the selection of a running mate who is constitutionally ineligible to hold the presidency.

The published 2028 calendar, and the last five cycles.

  • Jan 2008: The Iowa caucuses opened primary voting on January 3, followed by the New Hampshire primary on January 8.
  • Nov 2008: Barack Obama won the general election, securing 365 electoral votes to John McCain's 173.
  • Jan 2012: Primary voting began with the Iowa caucuses on January 3 and the New Hampshire primary on January 10.
  • Nov 2012: Barack Obama secured reelection, winning 332 electoral votes to Mitt Romney's 206.
  • Feb 2016: Primary voting commenced with the Iowa caucuses on February 1 and the New Hampshire primary on February 9.
  • Nov 2016: Donald Trump won the presidency with 304 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton's 227.
  • Feb 2020: The primary calendar opened with the Iowa caucuses on February 3 and the New Hampshire primary on February 11.
  • Nov 2020: Joe Biden won the general election, securing 306 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 232.
  • Jan 2024: Primary calendars diverged, with Republicans caucusing in Iowa on January 15 and New Hampshire voting on January 23.
  • Jul 2024: The 43rd Republican National Convention formally adopted party rules governing the 2028 primary cycle.
  • Nov 2024: Donald Trump won the general election, securing 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris's 226.
  • Mar 2026: The DNC scheduled the 2028 Democratic National Convention for August 7 to 10, 2028.
  • Jun 2026: The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee finalized the 2028 Delegate Selection Rules, establishing delegate penalties for unsanctioned state primary dates.
  • Jul 2026: The DNC approved waivers for six early-window states to hold primary contests prior to Super Tuesday.
  • Aug 2026: DNC Chair Ken Martin named Boston, Denver, and Philadelphia as the finalists for the 2028 convention, narrowing the five candidate cities announced in March.
  • Dec 2027: The official Republican Call of the Convention, which fixes state delegate counts, is scheduled for publication by December 1, 2027.
  • Jan 2028: South Carolina opens the Democratic primary calendar on January 22, followed by early-window states through February 29.
  • Nov 2028: The presidential election takes place on November 7, 2028, with electors meeting on December 19 and Congress counting votes on January 6, 2029.

Presidential election prediction markets.

events · markets
POLY
Winner markets
Who wins the presidential election?
JD Vance+
KLSH
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Who is inaugurated president in ?
J.D. Vance
POLY
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Which party wins the presidential election?
Democratic+
KLSH
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Which party takes the White House in ?
Democratic party+
KLSH
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Who wins the presidency, the House and the Senate in ?
Democratic Sweep
KLSH
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What is the exact outcome of the presidential race?
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance-
KLSH
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Which matchup do the nominations produce?
AOC v. JD Vance
KLSH
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What is the popular vote margin?
Democratic by or more
KLSH
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Which ticket does the Republican convention nominate in ?
JD Vance and Marco Rubio+
KLSH
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Which ticket does the Democratic convention nominate in ?
Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+
KLSH
Winner
Does the presidential election take place?
In +
KLSH
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What is the Electoral College margin?
Democratic by to
POLY
Winner
Is the next elected US president a woman?
Will the next elected US president be a woman?
POLY
Democrats markets
Who is the Democratic presidential nominee?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-
KLSH
Democrats markets
Who does the Democratic convention nominate for president?
Jon Ossoff
KLSH
Democrats markets
Which state votes first in the Democratic primary?
New Hampshire
KLSH
Democrats markets
Which city hosts the Democratic national convention?
Denver
POLY
Democrats
Is the Democratic presidential nominee a woman?
Will the Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?+
POLY
Democrats markets
Who wins the South Carolina Democratic primary?
Raphael Warnock-
KLSH
Democrats
Who carries the South Carolina Democratic primary in ?
Kamala Harris-
KLSH
Democrats
Does New Hampshire schedule its primary before South Carolina?
Before Jan,
POLY
Republicans markets
Who is the Republican presidential nominee?
J.D. Vance+
KLSH
Republicans markets
Who does the Republican convention nominate for president?
J.D. Vance
KLSH
Republicans
Is a Trump family member the Republican nominee?
Before -
POLY
Republicans
Is the Republican presidential nominee a woman?
Will the Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?+
KLSH
VP pick markets
Who is the Democratic vice-presidential nominee?
Elissa Slotkin+
KLSH
VP pick markets
Who is the Republican vice-presidential nominee?
Marco Rubio+
POLY
VP pick markets
Who does the Democratic ticket carry as vice president?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
POLY
VP pick markets
Who does the Republican ticket carry as vice president?
Marco Rubio

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