Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, and the Game Awards: 2026-2027 awards season prediction markets

Awards season prediction markets put a live price on who wins, and the choices run wider than Best Picture. You can back a specific actor or director in the acting and directing races, an album for Album of the Year, an artist for Best New Artist, a show for Outstanding Drama or Comedy, or a game for Game of the Year. Some markets ask who gets nominated rather than who wins, or which film leads the field in total nominations. Each is a yes or no contract that pays one dollar if it resolves yes and nothing if it does not. Television settles first, at the Emmys in September. Video games follow at the Game Awards in December. Film and music voting builds through the Golden Globes in January, runs through a guild-heavy stretch in February, and resolves at the Oscars in March.

Film carries the deepest books on both platforms, concentrated in Best Picture and the lead acting and directing races. Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey sits behind three separate Oscar contracts at once: Best Picture, the most-nominations market, and a Best Director contract on Nolan himself, so one precursor result can move all three together.

The other three settle before the Oscars do, each at a different stage of its own race. The Emmys land first, in September, with the nominees already set, so those markets have little left to surprise them. The Game Awards come in December, and hinge on a release question as much as a quality one: a game has to ship during the year to qualify, so a delay can pull a favorite out of contention. The Grammys land last of the three, in February, and their nominees are not named until the fall, so those markets stay the thinnest and most speculative of the four.

• Guild and precursor awards. The DGA, PGA, SAG, and BAFTA all vote and announce in the weeks before the Oscars, and each guild's membership overlaps heavily with the matching Academy branch, so a guild winner functions as an early poll of the people who will decide the Oscar.
• For-your-consideration campaigns. Between nominations and the ceremony, studios and labels buy trade ads, mail screeners, and run voter events. Watch for a nominee drifting up on campaign noise with no guild result behind it, and check whether anything but spend has changed before following the move.
• Eligibility windows and release slips. Every category has a cutoff date, and a film, album, or game that misses it rolls to the following year's race. Grand Theft Auto VI has already slipped its release date more than once, which is what moves a title from one year's Game of the Year field to the next.
• The preferential ballot at the Oscars. Best Picture is decided by ranked-choice voting among Academy members, which rewards broad support across the membership over passionate but narrow backing.
• Nominations day. The moment nominees are announced, a market that had been spread across dozens of possible titles concentrates onto the confirmed field of five to ten contenders, and every existing contract reprices at once.

Awards season timeline.

Live awards season markets.

Frequently asked questions.