Trump presidency tracker 2026: approval rating, impeachment markets, Cabinet exits, and pardons

Kalshi's approval ladder resolves against VoteHub's daily reading; Polymarket's resolves against Silver Bulletin's aggregate. Both pay out the moment the named average touches the listed threshold; neither needs to hold that level. A single strong or weak poll cycle can settle a contract permanently, well before the ladder's stated close date.

An impeachment market resolves once the House adopts articles by a simple majority. A removal market additionally requires two-thirds of the Senate to convict, which no Senate has ever done: Andrew Johnson survived by a single vote in 1868, and the most guilty votes cast against a president came in 2021, 57 of the 67 needed. Reading the two as the same bet is the most common mistake on this ladder.

Section 4 of the 25th Amendment lets the Vice President and a Cabinet majority declare a president unable to serve. If the president contests it, keeping the Vice President in charge needs a two-thirds vote in both chambers, a higher bar than impeachment and conviction combined. It has never been invoked in the nearly six decades since ratification.

Kalshi's pardon ladder pays out on a full pardon, a commutation, or a reprieve. Polymarket's equivalent contracts are worded specifically around a pardon. Read each contract's rules text before assuming a commutation, which reduces a sentence without erasing the conviction, resolves both venues the same way.

270 as of July 24, 2026, according to the Federal Register, already 50 more than his entire first term. The pace has slowed since 2025: roughly 45 orders in the first seven months of 2026 against 225 across all of 2025. Only orders formally numbered and published in the Federal Register count toward the order-count ladder; memoranda and proclamations do not.

There is no single number. Silver Bulletin's average, which Polymarket's approval contracts settle against, put Trump's approval at 38.2 percent on July 30, 2026, a second-term low, while RealClearPolitics read about three points higher the same week. Check which average a specific contract cites before comparing it to a headline poll.

The House has tabled two privileged impeachment votes already, most recently 237 to 140 in December 2025, and a third resolution with 13 articles has sat in committee since April 2026 without a floor vote. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has said impeachment is not a stated priority. The odds shift once a new Congress is sworn in on January 3, 2027, the date these contracts are actually pricing.

Todd Blanche. The Senate confirmed him 50 to 49 on August 8, 2026, with Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski the only Republican votes against. Blanche had run the Justice Department as acting Attorney General since Pam Bondi's firing on April 2, 2026; his committee vote stalled in late July before the Judiciary Committee reported the nomination in early August. Kalshi's next-Attorney-General contract resolved Yes on Blanche, and all three confirmation-timing contracts resolved Yes on confirmation day.

Not yet. Kalshi's contract requires the United States to purchase at least part of Greenland from Denmark; a lease, a defense agreement, or annexation without a purchase does not count. Talks among Washington, Copenhagen, and Nuuk continue through a working group targeting an outcome by the end of 2026, but every public account of the January 2026 framework excludes a sovereignty transfer.

Faster on the metric that counts: 27 Senate-confirmed officials across Cabinet departments left in this term's first 18 months, versus 11 in the same span of the first term, per the Partnership for Public Service. Four Cabinet-secretary-level departures happened in 2026 alone, after zero in all of 2025. Senior White House staff turnover sat at 34 percent as of July 2026, per Brookings.