World elections: live prediction-market odds for the 2026 and 2027 races
Key highlights
- Brazil votes for president on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate clears half the first round. Lula runs for a fourth term against a right splintered among several candidates after the courts barred Jair Bolsonaro from running until 2030. Brazil and France 2027 carry more volume than any other race covered (Chironus analysis, as of July 2026), and Brazil resolves first.
- Seven votes fall between September and November 2026: Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, Sweden on September 13, Russia's State Duma and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern both on September 20, Latvia by October 3, Quebec on October 5, and Bulgaria's presidency in November. France then elects a president in April 2027, with candidates declaring and markets pricing them well before the campaign begins.
- How a contract resolves depends on the voting system. Two-round races (Brazil, France, Bulgaria) settle on an outright majority or a runoff between the top two. Proportional races (Sweden, Latvia, the German states) settle on which party wins the most seats and can form a government, not a single name. Romania and Italy have no scheduled vote at all: their markets resolve on whoever becomes prime minister next.
Brazil votes first. Lula runs for a fourth term against a right that splintered once the courts barred Jair Bolsonaro from running, which leaves the opposition without a settled front-runner going into the first round. France follows in April 2027; with Macron term-limited, Marine Le Pen, Édouard Philippe, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon already lead a field being priced two years early.
Between the two, a cluster of European and Canadian elections settles through autumn 2026, while Romania and Italy trade on who becomes prime minister next, with no vote scheduled. Every one of these contracts turns on the same two questions: who wins, and under what rule the win is counted. Those mechanics carry over from any political prediction market.
What moves world election markets.
- The voting system decides what the contract actually pays on. In a two-round race like Brazil or France, the market asks whether anyone wins outright in the first round, and if not, who wins the runoff. In a proportional system like Sweden or Latvia, no single person wins, so the market asks which party finishes first and can form a government.
- A candidate being ruled in or out reprices the whole field in a day. When a court barred Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, and when a conviction left Marine Le Pen's candidacy conditional on her sentencing in France, the favorite's support did not disappear. It shifted to whoever was still allowed to run.
- Prices set years early track name recognition, not campaigns. France's 2027 and Argentina's 2027 races are trading before the candidates have organized, so an early leader is often just the best-known name, and those prices move a lot as real campaigns form.
- A gap between platforms is only a signal where both carry the race. Brazil, France, Sweden, Bulgaria, and Argentina trade on both Polymarket and Kalshi, so a difference between the two prices is worth a look. Everywhere else, one platform is the only quote there is.
- A leadership market can resolve with no election at all. Romania and Italy have no scheduled vote, so a resignation or a lost confidence vote can decide who is prime minister next at any time.
How world election markets resolve.
Two-round runoffs: Brazil, France, Bulgaria, Zambia, and Argentina elect a president in two rounds. The market prices both an outright first-round win and a runoff between the top two finishers, so a candidate can lead the first round and still lose the contract weeks later.
Proportional and parliamentary races: Sweden, Russia's Duma, Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Latvia, Quebec, and the Cook Islands elect a legislature. The market settles on which party wins the most seats, and coalition arithmetic, not any single race, decides who governs afterward.
Next prime minister: Romania's and Italy's markets have no ballot date to trade around, so the catalyst is a confidence motion or a coalition partner walking out. Watch the parliamentary calendar rather than a polling average, and check whether a caretaker appointment counts under the contract wording.
Cross-platform books: Where a race carries a quote on both Polymarket and Kalshi, read each side's resolution wording before treating a price gap as disagreement, because the two contracts can define the same race on different terms.
What settles the market: Each contract pays out on the official result certified by the national election authority, not a media projection or a poll. For a two-round race that can mean waiting on the runoff, weeks after the first vote.
All related markets.
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