Skip to content
Fed rate predictions 2026: meeting-by-meeting prices, cut counts, and the hike question
Skip to content
Chironus.
LIVEEconomy & Finance· August 11, 2026

Fed rate predictions 2026: meeting-by-meeting prices, cut counts, and the hike question

Robert C.By Robert C., Founder & CMO
Fed rate predictions 2026: meeting-by-meeting prices, cut counts, and the hike question

Key highlights

  • The federal funds target range has sat at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since December 10, 2025, and the Fed has now held five straight meetings, one of them a unanimous vote in June. What changed in June is the Fed's own forecast: the median projection now puts the rate at 3.8 percent at the end of 2026, which means the committee's own base case implies its next move is up.
  • Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi price every version of the Fed rate question: what happens at each 2026 FOMC meeting, how many cuts and how many hikes the full year delivers, where the rate ends 2026, and whether an emergency move lands between meetings.
  • June CPI came in at 3.5 percent, with PCE inflation, the gauge the 2 percent goal is written against, at 4.1 percent in May. The June FOMC minutes blame tariff pass-through, energy costs from the closed Strait of Hormuz, and the AI buildout. Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair, opened his first press conference by acknowledging inflation "has been running well ahead" of the 2 percent goal "for more than five years." Pressed on it later, he told reporters: "we're going to fix that."
Fed rate predictions for 2026 come down to one unusual question: after cutting rates three times at the end of last year, is the Federal Reserve's next move a hike? The Fed has held its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent through five straight meetings while inflation re-accelerated, oil spiked on the Strait of Hormuz closure, and a new chair took over in May. At the June meeting, nine of 18 FOMC participants projected at least one 2026 hike. In March, none did.
Polymarket and Kalshi turn that question into contracts that pay $1 if the stated outcome happens and nothing if it does not, each with exact resolution rules, so a price in cents reads directly as the market's probability of that outcome. Decision markets pay out on what the Fed does at a single meeting: hold, cut, or hike, and by how much. Count markets split the full year into outcomes: zero cuts through four, and zero hikes through five or more. Rate-level markets settle on a single published number: the upper bound of the Fed's target range after the December meeting. A separate set of contracts prices the tails: emergency moves between meetings and any single cut larger than 25 basis points.
Total Volume
Active Markets
Platforms

How a Fed rate decision works

Every market resolves on something the Federal Reserve publishes. Here is the machinery behind a rate decision, and which part each contract type actually reads.
TermWhat it meansWhy it matters for these markets
Target rangeThe Fed sets a 25-basis-point band for the federal funds rate, currently 3.50 to 3.75 percent, rather than a single number.Meeting decision markets resolve on whether this band moves, and in which direction.
Upper boundThe top of the target range, currently 3.75 percent. It is the number the Fed publishes after every meeting.The rate-level markets on both platforms settle on the upper bound, not the midpoint.
The FOMCThe Federal Open Market Committee: seven governors plus five regional Fed bank presidents vote at each meeting. Twelve votes decide the rate.Dissents are recorded by name and often preview the next move. The December 2025 cut drew three.
Scheduled meetingsEight per year, on dates published years in advance. The 2026 decision days: January 28, March 18, April 29, June 17, July 29, September 16, October 28, and December 9.Each meeting has its own decision market. September and December also bring new projections.
Intermeeting (emergency) movesThe Fed can change rates between scheduled meetings. It has done so in 1998, 2001, 2008, and twice in March 2020; every one of those moves was a cut made in a crisis.The emergency-cut contracts price exactly this scenario. The hike-count market counts emergency hikes too; the cut-count contracts' own rules decide how an intermeeting cut or a single cut larger than 25 basis points is tallied, so read them on the card before trading that group.
The dot plot (SEP)Quarterly, each FOMC participant projects where rates should end the year. The median dot is the committee's base case.Dots mark the midpoint of the target range. The June 2026 median of 3.8 percent sits above the current 3.6 percent midpoint, with nine of 18 participants projecting at least one hike. The Fed's own forecast leans hike.
DissentsMembers who vote against the decision are named in the statement, with their preferred action.Miran dissented in favor of lower rates at six straight meetings before June's unanimous hold, and April added three dissents the other way, against the statement's easing bias. When the dissents pushing for cuts stop, the vote record itself points toward a hike.

The policy record: every meeting since the cuts began

Three cuts, then five holds. Each row is sourced from the Fed's own post-meeting statement.
MeetingActionRange afterVotes and notes
Sep 17, 2025Cut 25 bps4.00-4.25%First cut of the stretch. Miran dissented, preferring a 50-basis-point cut.
Oct 29, 2025Cut 25 bps3.75-4.00%Miran dissented for a larger cut, Schmid for no change. The Fed also set balance-sheet runoff to end December 1.
Dec 10, 2025Cut 25 bps3.50-3.75%The last rate change to date. Three dissents: Miran for 50 bps, Goolsbee and Schmid for no change.
Jan 28, 2026Hold3.50-3.75%First hold. Miran and Waller dissented in favor of a cut. Powell's final stretch as chair.
Mar 18, 2026Hold3.50-3.75%Miran again the lone dissenter for a cut. March projections still showed no participant expecting a 2026 hike.
Apr 29, 2026Hold3.50-3.75%Third consecutive hold, with four dissents: Miran preferred a cut; Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan backed the hold but opposed keeping an easing bias in the statement.
Jun 17, 2026Hold3.50-3.75%Unanimous 12-0, the first meeting with no dissents in this stretch, and Warsh's first as chair. New projections moved the 2026 median dot up to 3.8 percent.
Jul 29, 2026Hold3.50-3.75%Fifth consecutive hold. The range has been unchanged since the December 2025 cut.

Twenty-five years of Fed rate decisions.

2001
The dot-com easing
Eleven cuts in a single year, three of them unscheduled (January 3, April 18, September 17), took the target from 6.50 to 1.75 percent.
2003
The floor of that cycle
A final cut in June 2003 left the target at 1.00 percent, capping 550 basis points of easing.
2004-06
The measured tightening
Seventeen consecutive 25-basis-point hikes over two years took the target from 1.00 to 5.25 percent.
2007-08
The financial crisis
Ten cuts took the target from 5.25 percent to the 0 to 0.25 range, including an unscheduled 75-basis-point cut in January 2008 and an October 2008 cut coordinated with five other central banks.
2008-15
Seven years at zero
The longest hold since 1990: the range stayed at 0 to 0.25 percent from December 2008 until the December 2015 liftoff.
2015-18
Liftoff
Nine hikes over three years added 225 basis points, ending at 2.25 to 2.50 percent.
2019
The mid-cycle adjustment
The Fed made three 25-basis-point cuts, a rare easing with no recession attached.
2020
The COVID emergency cuts
Two unscheduled cuts twelve days apart (50 basis points on March 3, then 100 on March 15) took rates back to zero. The template for what the emergency-cut contracts price.
2022-23
The inflation fight
Eleven hikes totaling 525 basis points, four of them consecutive 75-basis-point moves, took the rate to a 5.25 to 5.50 percent peak the Fed then held for 14 months.
2024-25
The current easing cycle
Six cuts between September 2024 and December 2025 took the range down 175 basis points to 3.50 to 3.75 percent.
2026
The hold, and the turn
Five straight holds, a new chair in May, and a June dot plot that flipped from zero projected 2026 hikes in March to nine of 18 participants projecting at least one.

The data the Fed watches

The Fed reads the same recurring data releases before every decision, on a calendar known in advance. Each latest reading carries its own date.
ReleaseCadence and why it moves these marketsLatest reading
FOMC rate decisionEight scheduled meetings a year, dates published years in advance. The target range moves only here unless the Fed acts between meetings.3.50-3.75% target range, set Dec 10, 2025 and held at every 2026 meeting since.
CPI (BLS, monthly)The mid-month inflation print, and usually the single biggest repricing event between meetings.3.5% headline, 2.6% core, year over year (June 2026, released Jul 14). Monthly CPI fell 0.4% on energy, the largest one-month drop since April 2020.
PCE inflation (BEA, monthly)The measure the 2 percent goal is written against, landing at month-end, about a month behind CPI.4.1% headline, 3.4% core, year over year (May 2026).
Jobs report (BLS, first Friday)The employment half of the dual mandate. A sharp deterioration is the main path back to cuts.+57,000 payrolls, 4.2% unemployment (June 2026), with April and May revised down a combined 74,000.
GDP (BEA, quarterly)The growth backdrop. Solid growth removes the pressure to cut.+2.1% annualized (Q1 2026, third estimate).
Dot plot / SEP (quarterly)The committee's own projected rate path, published at the March, June, September, and December meetings. The median dot is the Fed's base case.Median of 3.8% for end-2026, 3.6% for end-2027, 3.1% longer run (June 2026). The end-2026 median sits above the current 3.6% target-range midpoint: the Fed's own forecast implies a hike.
Fed's inflation projectionWhere the committee thinks inflation lands this year; large revisions move the whole rate path.3.6% PCE for 2026 (June SEP), revised up from 2.7% in March.
Energy pricesThe supply shock feeding this inflation episode. Oil pass-through shows up in headline CPI within weeks.The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since late February 2026; a US-Iran truce broke down July 8 and tanker attacks resumed.
Mortgage rates (Freddie Mac, weekly)Where the policy rate reaches households; the most visible downstream effect of every decision.6.55% average 30-year fixed (week of July 16, 2026).

What the Fed and Wall Street expect

Dated bank and committee forecasts sit next to what Fed officials have said in public. The live markets price the same question continuously.
WhoThe callStated
FOMC median (dot plot)End-2026 rate of 3.8 percent, above today's 3.6 percent target-range midpoint. Nine of 18 participants project at least one 2026 hike; six project two or more.Jun 17, 2026
J.P. Morgan (Feroli)Zero cuts in 2026 and a 25-basis-point hike in Q3 2027, citing accelerating growth and core CPI above 3 percent. Fed funds futures put an 8 percent probability on that path when the call was published.Jan 9, 2026
Goldman Sachs (Mericle)Dropped its 2026 cut call after a strong May jobs report; now sees cuts no earlier than June 2027, and doubled its hike probability to 20 percent.Jun 8, 2026
Morgan Stanley (Gapen)Hold through all of 2026, with two cuts in early 2027 taking the range to 3.0 to 3.25 percent.Apr 30, 2026
Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed, 2026 voter)Says "modestly higher interest rates" would better balance the outlook, and that inflation "has been too high, for too long."Jul 16, 2026
Lisa Cook (Fed governor)"If we do not see signs of disinflation soon, I am prepared to act." Flags war-driven energy costs and the AI buildout as the two new price pressures.Jul 15, 2026
June FOMC minutesA few participants already saw a case for hiking at the June meeting; several said price pressures had become broad based across goods and services.Released Jul 2026

What the Fed has done after past cutting cycles

History's answer to the hike question: since 1990 the Fed has finished an easing cycle six times, and the wait for the next hike ran from seven months to seven years.
Easing cycleTotal cutNext hike cameGap after last cut
1990-92 (18 cuts)525 bpsFeb 1994~17 months
1995-96 (3 cuts)75 bpsMar 1997~14 months
1998 (3 cuts, one intermeeting)75 bpsJun 1999~7 months
2001-03 (13 cuts, three unscheduled)550 bpsJun 2004~12 months
2007-08 (10 cuts, two unscheduled)~500-525 bpsDec 20157 years, the longest hold since 1990
2019 (3 cuts)75 bpsMar 2022Two emergency COVID cuts in March 2020 intervened
2024-25 (6 cuts), the current one175 bpsOpen questionThe last cut was Dec 10, 2025. A 2026 hike would land 7 to 12 months after it, inside the historical range.

Key terms

TermDefinition
Basis point (bp)One hundredth of a percentage point. A 25-basis-point cut takes the upper bound from 3.75 to 3.50 percent.
Federal funds rateThe overnight rate banks charge each other for reserves. The Fed steers it inside the target range, and most US borrowing costs key off it.
Upper boundThe top of the target range. The number most contracts read at settlement, as published by the Federal Reserve.
Dot plotThe chart of every FOMC participant's rate projection, published four times a year in the Summary of Economic Projections. A full committee has 19 participants; 18 filed projections in June 2026. The median dot is the committee's base case.
Intermeeting moveA rate change announced between scheduled meetings, historically reserved for crises. The emergency-cut contracts resolve on these.
DissentA vote against the committee's decision, recorded by name with the preferred alternative. A cluster of dissents often precedes a policy turn.
HoldA decision to leave the target range unchanged. In Kalshi's decision contracts a hold is listed as a hike of 0 basis points.
PCE inflationThe Fed's preferred inflation measure, published by the BEA about a month behind CPI. The 2 percent goal refers to PCE, not CPI.
Core inflationInflation with food and energy stripped out, read as the underlying trend. An energy shock can push headline far above core, which is exactly the 2026 pattern.
Dual mandateThe Fed's two legal goals: stable prices and maximum employment. Every post-meeting statement frames the decision as serving both.
HawkishLeaning toward higher rates or tighter policy to bring inflation down, accepting slower growth as the cost.
DovishLeaning toward lower rates to support jobs and growth, accepting more inflation risk as the cost.
Neutral rateThe rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. The FOMC's longer-run median projection is its working estimate of neutral.
Terminal rateThe peak (in a hiking cycle) or floor (in a cutting cycle) the policy rate is expected to reach before the Fed reverses course.
Balance-sheet runoffLetting bonds mature without reinvesting, a second tightening lever alongside rates. The Fed ended runoff effective December 1, 2025.
Fed funds futuresExchange-traded contracts whose prices imply meeting-by-meeting rate probabilities. The traditional benchmark that these prediction markets can be compared against.

Fed rate decision markets.

events · markets
KLSH
The September meeting markets
What does the Fed do at the September meeting? (Kalshi)
September meeting: Fed holds rates (Kalshi)+
POLY
The September meeting markets
What does the Fed do at the September meeting? (Polymarket)
September meeting: no change (Polymarket)+
KLSH
The rate path markets
How many times does the Fed cut rates in ?
rate cuts: exactly -
POLY
The rate path markets
How many times does the Fed hike rates in ?
rate hikes: none+
POLY
The rate path markets
Where does the Fed rate end ? (Polymarket)
End of : -
KLSH
The rate path markets
Where is the rate after the December meeting? (Kalshi)
After Dec meeting: above (Kalshi)-
POLY
Hike watch
Does the Fed hike rates in ?
Any Fed hike in (Polymarket)-
POLY
Hike watch markets
Fed hike by which meeting?
Hike by the September meeting (Polymarket)-
KLSH
Hike watch markets
When does the Fed hike again? (Kalshi)
Fed hikes again before (Kalshi)-
KLSH
Meeting by meeting markets
What does the Fed do at the October meeting? (Kalshi)
October meeting: Fed holds rates (Kalshi)+
KLSH
Meeting by meeting markets
What does the Fed do at the December meeting? (Kalshi)
December meeting: Fed holds rates (Kalshi)+
KLSH
Tail risks markets
Emergency Fed rate cuts in ?
Emergency cuts in : exactly -
KLSH
Tail risks
Does the Fed make a cut bigger than in ?
Any cut larger than in (Kalshi)+

Frequently asked questions.

  1. When is the next Fed meeting?

    The FOMC meets eight times a year on a calendar published years in advance. The 2026 decision days are January 28, March 18, April 29, June 17, July 29, September 16, October 28, and December 9, with the September and December meetings bringing a new Summary of Economic Projections. The decision markets price each meeting separately and resolve within days of each announcement.

  2. Will the Fed raise rates in 2026?

    It is a live question, and for the first time in this cycle the Fed's own numbers lean toward yes: the June 2026 dot plot has a median end-2026 rate of 3.8 percent, above the current 3.6 percent midpoint of the target range, with nine of 18 participants projecting at least one hike. Two FOMC voices went further in July, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan backing modestly higher rates and Governor Lisa Cook saying she is prepared to act without signs of disinflation. The hike-watch markets price the question continuously rather than freezing a number.

  3. Will the Fed cut rates in 2026?

    The banks that entered 2026 forecasting cuts have walked those calls back: J.P. Morgan sees zero 2026 cuts, Goldman Sachs pushed its cuts to 2027 in June, and Morgan Stanley moved to a full-year hold in April. A cut this year would most plausibly follow a sharp growth or labor-market deterioration. The cut-count markets and the emergency-cut contracts price the two forms that could take: scheduled cuts and crisis cuts. The market prices update live.

  4. How do Fed prediction markets resolve?

    Each contract has exact rules. Meeting decision markets resolve on what the Fed announces at that meeting: a hold, or a cut or hike of a stated size. Rate-level markets settle on the upper bound of the target range as published by the Federal Reserve after the December meeting. Count markets tally moves across the whole year, and Polymarket's hike-count contract explicitly includes emergency hikes made between meetings. Reading the resolution text on each card matters more than the market title.

  5. What is the dot plot?

    Four times a year, each FOMC participant writes down where they think the federal funds rate should end the year; the chart of those projections is the dot plot, part of the Summary of Economic Projections. The median dot is the closest thing to the committee's official base case. It moved sharply in June 2026, from 3.4 percent to 3.8 percent for end-2026, which is why the hike markets became the story of the year.

  6. Who is the Fed chair now?

    Kevin Warsh has chaired the Federal Reserve since May 22, 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell, whose term as chair expired. Powell remains on the Board of Governors, with Philip Jefferson as vice chair. Warsh acknowledged at his first post-meeting press conference in June that inflation had run above the 2 percent goal for more than five years, and told reporters the Fed was going to fix it, a signal the markets immediately had to price.

  7. What happened at the last Fed meeting?

    On July 29, 2026, the FOMC held the target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for a fifth straight meeting. The more consequential meeting was the one before it, June 17, when the Fed held in a unanimous 12-0 vote and released a projection update that pushed the median 2026 rate forecast from 3.4 to 3.8 percent and the median inflation forecast from 2.7 to 3.6 percent PCE, with minutes later showing a few participants already saw a case for hiking.

Robert C.
Robert C.

Founder & CMO

Legal training meets poker bankroll management. 10 years of content marketing scaled to millions of pageviews. Runs the editorial side, turning platform research and live market data into the answers traders actually search for.

Read more news

More in Economy & Finance.

SpaceX prediction markets: Starship, launch cadence, and the Moon
Economy & Finance

SpaceX Prediction Markets 2026: Starship, Launches, Moon

The SpaceX IPO has priced and settled. What still trades: Starship reusability and launch cadence, docking milestones, NASA Moon timelines, and the Tesla merger question, live on Polymarket and Kalshi.

LiveEconomy & Finance2d ago
AI IPOs and valuations: OpenAI, Anthropic, and the model race
Economy & Finance

AI IPOs and Valuations: OpenAI, Anthropic, Model Race Odds

IPO announcement ladders, completion cutoffs, year-end valuation rungs, the best-model race, and the largest-company contract, priced live on Polymarket and Kalshi.

LiveEconomy & Finance3d ago
Bitcoin price prediction 2026: live odds and crypto forecasts
Economy & Finance

Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026: Odds & Forecasts

BTC price thresholds, altcoin returns, crypto regulation, and institutional stress contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi.

LiveEconomy & Finance3d ago
See all Economy & Finance marketsTrack Economy & Finance markets live in the scanner

Economy & Finance explainers.

Small business owner reviewing costs at the counter of a neighborhood shop
Strategy

How Small Businesses Hedge Risk With Prediction Markets

A bar, an ice cream shop, and a conference organizer all hedged real business risk with prediction market contracts. How the hedges worked, what the arithmetic looks like, and where the limits sit.

Beginner12 min read
How Prediction Market Fees work dashboard
Fees & Costs

The 6 Fees That Eat Your Prediction Market Profits

Six fee categories, one $100 trade. See what Kalshi, Polymarket, and FanDuel Predicts actually take.

Beginner11 min read
Explore Economy & FinanceTrack Economy & Finance markets live in the scanner

Join the community.

Last updated